COUNCIL OPINION
of 12 July 2005
on the updated stability programme of Portugal, 2005-2009
Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|
Real GDP (% change) |
SP Jun 2005 |
1,0 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,2 |
2,6 |
3,0 |
COM April 2005 |
1,0 |
1,1 |
1,7 |
— |
— |
— |
|
SP Jan 2004 |
1,0 |
2,5 |
2,8 |
3,0 |
— |
— |
|
HICP inflation (%) |
SP Jun 2005 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,9 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,4 |
COM April 2005 |
2,5 |
2,3 |
2,1 |
— |
— |
— |
|
SP Jan 2004 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
— |
— |
|
General government balance (% of GDP) |
SP Jun 2005 |
– 2,9 |
– 6,2 |
– 4,8 |
– 3,9 |
– 2,8 |
– 1,6 |
COM April 2005 |
– 2,9 |
– 4,9 |
– 4,7 |
— |
— |
— |
|
SP Jan 2004(5) |
– 2,8 |
– 2,2 |
– 1,6 |
– 1,1 |
— |
— |
|
Primary balance (% of GDP) |
SP Jun 2005 |
– 0,1 |
– 3,3 |
– 1,6 |
– 0,5 |
0,7 |
1,8 |
COM April 2005 |
– 0,1 |
– 2,0 |
– 1,6 |
— |
— |
— |
|
SP Jan 2004 |
0,1 |
0,9 |
1,5 |
2,0 |
— |
— |
|
Cyclically-adjusted balance (% of GDP) |
SP Jun 2005(4) |
– 2,2 |
– 5,3 |
– 3,8 |
– 3,1 |
– 2,3 |
– 1,4 |
COM April 2005 |
– 2,0 |
– 3,9 |
– 3,7 |
— |
— |
— |
|
SP Jan 2004(4) |
– 1,7 |
– 1,3 |
– 0,9 |
– 0,7 |
— |
— |
|
One-off measures (% of GDP) |
SP Jun 2005 |
2,3 |
0,2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
COM April 2005 |
2,3 |
0,3 |
0 |
— |
— |
— |
|
Cyclically-adjusted balance net of one-off measures (% of GDP) |
SP Jun 2005(4) |
– 4,5 |
– 5,5 |
– 3,8 |
– 3,1 |
– 2,3 |
– 1,4 |
COM April 2005 |
– 4,3 |
– 4,2 |
– 3,7 |
— |
— |
— |
|
Government gross debt (% of GDP) |
SP Jun 2005 |
61,9 |
66,5 |
67,5 |
67,8 |
66,8 |
64,5 |
COM April 2005 |
61,9 |
66,2 |
68,5 |
— |
— |
— |
|
SP Jan 2004(5) |
60,0 |
59,7 |
58,6 |
57,0 |
— |
— |
|
Sources: Stability programmes (SP); Commission services spring 2005 economic forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations. |