COUNCIL OPINION
of 14 March 2006
on the updated stability programme of Germany, 2005-2009
Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|
Real GDP (% change) |
SP Feb 2006 |
1,6 |
0,9 |
1,5 |
1 |
1,75 |
1,75 |
COM Nov 2005(9) |
1,6 |
0,8 |
1,2 |
1,6 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004 |
1,8 |
1,7 |
1,75 |
2 |
— |
— |
|
HICP inflation (%) |
SP Feb 2006 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
COM Nov 2005 |
1,8 |
2,0 |
1,6 |
1,1 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
|
Output gap (% of potential GDP) |
SP Feb 2006(4) |
– 0,6 |
– 0,9 |
– 0,7 |
– 1,1 |
– 0,7 |
– 0,4 |
COM Nov 2005(8) |
– 0,6 |
– 0,9 |
– 0,8 |
– 0,4 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004(4) |
– 1,2 |
– 0,9 |
– 0,7 |
– 0,3 |
– 0,0 |
— |
|
General government balance (% of GDP) |
SP Feb 2006 |
– 3,7 |
– 3,3 |
– 3,3 |
– 2,5 |
– 2 |
– 1,5 |
COM Nov 2005 |
– 3,7 |
– 3,9 |
– 3,7 |
– 3,3 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004 |
– 3,75 |
– 2,9 |
– 2,5 |
– 2 |
– 1,5 |
— |
|
Primary balance (% of GDP) |
SP Feb 2006 |
– 0,8 |
– 0,5 |
– 0,5 |
0,5 |
1,25 |
1,5 |
COM Nov 2005 |
– 0,8 |
– 0,9 |
– 0,9 |
– 0,4 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004 |
– 0,5 |
0 |
0,5 |
1,5 |
2 |
— |
|
Cyclically-adjusted balance (% of GDP) |
SP Feb 2006(4) |
– 3,4 |
– 2,9 |
– 2,9 |
– 1,8 |
– 1,5 |
– 1,1 |
COM Nov 2005 |
– 3,3 |
– 3,2 |
– 3,2 |
– 3,0 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004(4) |
– 3,0 |
– 2,4 |
– 1,9 |
– 1,6 |
– 1,3 |
— |
|
Structural balance(5) (% of GDP) |
SP Feb 2006(6) |
– 3,4 |
– 3,0 |
– 2,9 |
– 1,8 |
– 1,5 |
– 1,1 |
COM Nov 2005(7) |
– 3,3 |
– 3,2 |
– 3,2 |
– 3,0 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
|
Government gross debt (% of GDP) |
SP Feb 2006 |
65,5 |
67,5 |
69 |
68,5 |
68 |
67 |
COM Nov 2005(10) |
66,4 |
68,6 |
70,0 |
71,4 |
— |
— |
|
SP Dec 2004 |
65,5 |
66 |
66 |
65,5 |
65 |
— |
|
Stability programme (SP); Commission services' autumn 2005 economic forecasts (COM) on the basis of unchanged policies before the new government took office in November 2005; Commission services' calculations. |